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…nicely, actual curiosity no less than. Whereas within the years for the reason that COVID-19 pandemic have seen nominal rates of interest rising, in the long term actual (i.e., inflation adjusted) rates of interest are falling. A NBER working paper by Obstfeld (2023) offers compelling proof of this development. Present actual rates of interest are probably someplace within the 1%-2% vary. Causes for this development embrace “demographic shifts, decrease productiveness development, company market energy, and protected asset demand relative to produce.” Some graphics exhibiting this development are under.
One purpose why this could matter to well being economics is that many price effectiveness analyses embrace a reduction fee that reductions future well being beneficial properties and prices relative to well being beneficial properties and value that accrue within the current. Oftentimes, that low cost fee is linked to the actual rate of interest within the financial system. If the actual rate of interest is falling, ought to the low cost fee used for cost-effectiveness fashions and worth evaluation on the whole additionally fall? One would assume so
You possibly can learn the complete paper right here.
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